Thursday, February 24, 2011
Corn, soybean prices go on a roller-coaster ride
Corn and soybeans bucked and reared in trading Wednesday on the Chicago Board of Trade, with corn going up as much as 10 cents per bushel before closing down 6 cents at $6.59 for the March contract.
But after the close of trading in Chicago at 1:15 p.m., corn rallied on electronic markets, gaining 33 cents per bushel to $6.92 by 4:56 p.m.
Soybeans lost 6 cents per bushel to $12.92, then jumped 28 cents in electronic trades in the next two hours to reach $13.20 per bushel for the March contract.
Analysts said the market is gripped by fears stemming from the violence in the Middle East and its potential impact on exports and shipping, as well as concerns about what the U.S. Department of Agriculture will report today and Friday on possible planting intentions.
"The grain complex continues to be vulnerable to the fear factor as long as investors are worried about the impact of Middle East and North Africa violence," said analyst Arlan Suderman of Farm Futures magazine. "Yet corn still has strong supply and demand fundamentals to bring prices back when those fears ease."
Corn has doubled in price since last June on tightened supplies in the United States and worldwide, as well as weather concerns in Asia and South America. The market has been watching China closely because of conflicting reports about growing conditions and possible feed grain shortages there.
Suderman emphasized the basic fundamental for corn: It needs 5 million or more acres beyond the 88.2 million acres planted a year ago. The most generous estimates of this year's corn plantings show corn acres rising to 92 million acres.
"Expect volatility to define the corn trade in the days and weeks ahead, but with firm undertones when fear is absent, as the market still has considerable work to do," Suderman said.
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