Soybean rises on global cues

NCDEX March soybean futures traded higher in line of firm overseas market. Higher export figures of domestic oil meals and lowered domestic stock of soybean also provided support to the bulls. Daily arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh declined to 75,000-80,000 bags yesterday as compared to previous day of 1 lakh bag also added bullish market sentiments.
UDDA’s Monthly Supply & Demand Report: The USDA Supply/demand report was considered neutral to soybeans as US ending stocks were pegged at 140 million bushels which was unchanged from last month. World ending stocks were pegged at 58.21 million tonnes from 58.28 million last month and compared with 60.17 million tonnes last year.
Argentina production was revised lower by 1 million tonnes to 49.5 million tonnes but Brazil production was revised higher by 1 million to 68.5 million tonnes. Brazil officials pegged the soybean crop at a record 70.1 million tonnes from 68.55 million as their January forecast.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX April RM seed futures ended slightly higher on higher prices of other oilseeds and gains in edible oils. Lower existing carry-over stocks and delayed harvesting also added bullish market sentiments. Arrivals at major mandis were reported lower at 30,000 bags as compared to previous day of 40,000 bags (bag=85 kg). However, higher production estimates of RM Seeds this year as compared to last year due to higher sowing acreage amid favorable weather may cap upside limit.
Production: As per Ministry of Agriculture, GOI, India’s RM Seed production estimates at 74 lakh tonnes for 2011, up 12% as compared to 66 lakh tonnes in the last year. However, India Rabi oilseeds production estimates for 2011 is 96 lakh tonnes, up 5.5% as compared to 91 lakh tonnes last year.
Exports: India’s rapeseed meal exports in the month of January 2011 stood at 42,409 tonnes (down 47 %) as compared to 79,961 million tonnes in the month of January 2010.
Refined Soy oil
March Refined soy oil futures ended higher to 1.13 per cent as compared to previous day’s close, tracking firm CPO futures at Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange, Malaysia. Soybean oil has been supported by a rally in palm oil futures in Malaysia to new 3-year highs.
Depreciation on INR against US dollar also provided support to the bulls. Import of edible oils will be costly due to weak Indian rupee against US dollar. As per Oil World, India’s vegetable oil output will rise about 12%. Output is expected to touch 98 lakh tonnes. India’s imports of soy, sunflower and palm oil will fall 3.9 percent to 88 lakh tons and consumption of oils and fats may grow by 700,000 tons this year even as prices climb, Oil World said. Soybean futures have climbed 48 percent in the past year and rapeseed is up 65 percent.
Malaysian Palm Oil Exports:
As per Intertek Testing Services (a cargo surveyor), exports of Malaysian palm oil products for the month of January fell 3.6 percent to 1.24 million tonnes from 1.29 million tonnes shipped during December 2010.
Outlook:
Soybean prices are expected to trade slightly higher on firm overseas market as global shortage of edible oils.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Soybean-rises-on-global-cues-21820.html)