Wednesday, February 16, 2011

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Soybean tumbles on selling pressure

  • Wednesday, February 16, 2011
  • Thùy Miên
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  • The soybean futures on Indian exchanges fell for fifth consecutive day on Tuesday. The active March contract futures price fell to 6-weeks low on strong selling pressure.
    Sluggish demand in the physical market especially from crushers amidst thin supplies added bearish sentiment to the market.
    The soy meal export demand from South East India has been shifting to Latin America following commencement of harvesting in these countries. Narrow down in soy meal price of India and Brazil also acted as bearish factor for the market.
    The soybean derivatives market reacted very positive to the news of extension of stock limit on edible oil and oilseeds by 6 months. Indian market took cues from weak overseas market.
    Larger Brazilian crop expectation, shift in demand from US to Latin America and slow down in Chinese buying interest were the bearish factors for the market.
    Outlook
    The soybean futures on projected to continue their bearish trend on follow through selling. Shrink in physical demand for soybean and its derivatives is likely to have bearish impact on the market.
    The soy meal export demand has been slowing down thus prompting crushers to stay away from active bean purchases. The crush margin is also declining due to decline in soy meal price.
    Soy meal Brazil-FOB prices have been declining thus narrowing down the spread between India and Brazil meal price to $15 a ton compared to $30 a ton a week ago. This may result into shift in meal demand from India to Brazil. Indian government official said that government might extend the stock limit on edible oil and oilseeds by 6 months till September 30. This is likely to have a bearish impact on the market.
    The spot price at Indore mandi quoted at `2300-2350 per quintal with arrivals reported at 2000 bags. On global front, CBOT soybean futures tumbled to 3-week low on continued selling pressure.
    Larger Brazilian crop expectation, shift in demand from US to Brazil following lower cash price and shrink in Chinese demand added bearishness to the market. Weak trend in overseas market is likely to weigh on Indian market.
    The derivative analysis (decline in price, open interest and rise in volume) is also indicating further weakness in the prices.

    (Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Soybean-tumbles-on-selling-pressure-21977.html)

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