Soybean declines on overseas market

NCDEX April soybean futures fell sharply due to weak overseas market ahead of USDA’s monthly supply and demand report. Traders are expecting higher global ending stock of soybean as higher production estimates of South America (Brazil & Argentina) amid favorable weather condition.
Higher production estimates of domestic rabi oilseeds also provided support to the bears. India’s kharif (summer) harvest of groundnuts and soybeans and the upcoming rabi (winter) harvest of rapeseed are better than the previous year. However, higher export figures of domestic oil meal may restrict to sharp fall further.
USDA’s Monthly supply & demand Report: The US Department of Agriculture today revised 2010-11 global soybean output estimate to 258.4 million tonnes, up by 2.3 million tonnes from its February estimate of 256.10 million tonnes. Brazil's soy crop output at a record 70.0 million tonnes n, up by 1.5 mln tn from the February estimate, due to timely rains in the producing regions of the country. It has raised output estimate for China as well.
Argentina's soy output has been kept unchanged at 49.5 million tonnes. Estimate of soybean carryover stock in the US was also kept unchanged at 3.82 million tonnes.The USDA raised global 2010-11 oilseeds production estimate by 2.4 million tonnes from the February projection to 444.2 million tonnes.
Oilseeds carryover stocks are now seen at 58.33 million tonnes, marginally up from 58.21 mln tn in February. Soymeal output is seen at 178.64 million tonnes, up 1.09 million tonnes from February estimate. Exports are also seen higher at 60.32 million tonnes from 59.46 million tonnes a month ago. The agency pegged soymeal year-ending stocks at 6.42 million tonnes.
USDA’s Weekly Exports: USDA’s weekly export sales report released today, which shows that the net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 412,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 57,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 470,000. Sales of 133,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Meal sales came in at 156,700 metric tonnes as compared with 83,000 metric tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales came in at 2,100 metric tonnes vs. 8,000 metric tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX April RM Seed futures ended in red due to sharp fall in NCDEX soybean and soy oil futures on Thursday. Higher production estimates of RM Seed this year as compared to last year also pressurize the prices.
Rising fresh arrivals in major mandis also favored to the bears. Daily arrivals of RM seeds in Rajasthan were at 85000 bags and throughout India was around 1.20 lakh bags, Refined Soy oil
NCDEX April Refined soy oil futures fell sharply on Thursday, tracking weak global market sentiments. Crude Palm Oil futures at Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange fell sharply and hit 4% lower circuit and touched the lowest level in the 4 months due to increase in stock levels and lower export figures of palm oil during the first 10 days in the month of March also added bearish market sentiments.
Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), exports of Malaysian palm oil during the March 1-10 fell 17 percent as compared to the same period in the last month to 355,485 tonnes.
Outlook:
Oilseeds complex are expected to trade lower due to higher production estimates of soybean in Brazil and Argentina due to favorable weather condition for crop. Higher production estimates of domestic RM Seed this year as compared to last year may pressurize the prices.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Soybean-declines-on-overseas-market-22486.html)